South Australia is heading into the March state election with One Nation signalling it will contest every seat as it touts what supporters describe as a One Nation surge in the polls. Party leader Pauline Hanson has been on the ground in Adelaide, with Cory Bernardi among the notable recruits in a bid to broaden the party’s appeal beyond its traditional base.
Analysts caution that poll movements do not automatically convert to seats, and campaign fortunes can shift quickly when candidates hit regional towns and suburban fringes. The Adelaide events have featured orange One Nation T-shirts and the flying of Australian flags, a visual cue of the party’s attempt to project unity and momentum.
As the campaign unfolds, the question for voters and observers is whether the momentum is sustainable through the day of voting. The mix of national attention and local grievances presents a testing ground for how far One Nation can push its message in a diverse state electorate.
What we know
- One Nation publicly states it will contest every seat in the March South Australian election and has brought in high-profile figures, including Cory Bernardi, to bolster its slate.
- There have been reports of a surge in polling attention as the party expands its fielding and outreach across urban and regional centres.
- Pauline Hanson has been actively engaging supporters on the ground in Adelaide as the campaign seeks to gain visibility and volunteers.
- Campaign events have featured the party’s signature orange branding and a visible display of Australian flags.
- Analysts note the campaign is focusing on issues that are purported to resonate at the local level in SA, aiming to translate energy into votes.
The SA contest is framed by broader national discussions around populism and regional representation, with One Nation aiming to present an alternative path inside the state’s political landscape.
What we don’t know
- Whether the apparent surge will endure to polling day and result in a meaningful number of seats for One Nation.
- How the presence of a more prominent figure like Bernardi affects vote splits among liberal-leaning voters and other minor parties.
- What the overall preference flows will look like, and how shifts in party alignment could alter the outcomes across different regions of the state.
- How the campaign’s spending, candidate quality, and ground-game will translate into votes in marginal electorates.
- Whether national headlines and federal considerations influence SA voters differently at the state level as campaigning intensifies.
With the March vote looming, observers say the outcome remains uncertain, and campaign dynamics over the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether One Nation’s SA surge is a lasting trend or a temporary positioning ahead of a key election.
