The 2026 AFL season is on the horizon, and fans are weighing which clubs will rise and which might slide back. As part of the AFL rise and fall 2026 narrative, after a season marked by shift and turnover, the question now is how much those changes will translate on the field, and whether new strategies can lift teams higher in the ladder. This piece weighs what’s known and what remains uncertain about the path to success in 2026.
What we know
- Coaching and strategy have shifted in several camps: a number of clubs have altered tactical approaches ahead of 2026, signalling a clear intent to evolve.
- List turnover is a feature: teams have moved veteran players and added younger talent to recalibrate their dynamics.
- Practice matches offer hints, not certainties: early practice games give an impression, but final outcomes will hinge on execution when the season starts.
- Fit and development pathways are under scrutiny: clubs are prioritising growth within their squads to sustain performance year over year.
- Competition balance remains uncertain: the ladder could tilt as new game plans mature and players adapt to changes.
What we don’t know
- How quickly new coaches will impose their systems: adoption and cohesion across match simulations can vary widely.
- Whether youth breakthroughs will translate to wins: promising juniors may take time to hit peak form at AFL level.
- Impact of injuries and depth across the season: minor injuries or suspensions can reshape rounds and momentum.
- Fixture luck and travel demands: where teams play and how often will influence home-ground advantages.
- Trade and draft outcomes: last-minute deals can alter lists in unpredictable ways.
In short, the 2026 season is shaping as a test of adaptation as much as talent. While we can identify clear signals of intent from several clubs, the actual rise and fall on the ladder will emerge as teams hit the training track and the first ball is bounced. Until then, the debate remains open, with pundits forecasting a mix of exciting progress and stern challenges ahead.
